نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی مستقل

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار آینده پژوهی دانشگاه فرماندهی و ستاد ارتش جمهوری اسلامی ایران، تهران، ایران

3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد ژئوپلیتیک دانشگاه فرماندهی و ستاد ارتش جمهوری اسلامی ایران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

مناطق جغرافیایی بر اساس انگاره­ های ذهنی مشترک و با توجه به ساختارها و کارکردهای مشترک به سمت همگرایی و همکاری سوق پیدا کرده­ اند و توانسته­اند منطقه خود را به سمت توسعه و امنیت پایدار سوق دهند. یکی از مناطق حساس و استراتژیک در معادلات ساختار هرم قدرت جهان اسلام است. به­رغم وجود تشابهات ذهنی و عینی در جهان اسلام برای ایجاد یک سازمان منطقه ­ای منسجم مبتنی بر ساخت قدرت اما این منطقه یکی از مناطق پرتنش جهان محسوب می­شود. هدف این این تحقیق بررسی این مسئله است که تحت تاثیر شرایط داخلی و بین المللی در دهه آینده جهان اسلام چگونه قابل تصور است. در این تحقیق از رویکرد آینده پژوهی و روش سناریو نویسی پیتر شوارتز استفاده شده است. یافته­ های  تحقیق نشان داده است که با شناخت پیشران­های متعدد در ابعاد عینی و ذهنی در مقیاس منطقه­ ای و جهانی دو عدم قطعیت در خصوص آینده ساخت قدرت در جهان اسلام در دهه آینده شناسایی شد که عبارت­اند از افزایش یا کاهش دخالت قدرت­ های فرامنطقه ­ای در جهان اسلام و همچنین افزایش یا کاهش چالش­های قومی مذهبی در جهان اسلام. سه سناریو بر اساس این عدم قطعیت­ها طراحی شده است که عبارت­اند از همگرایی ساخت قدرت در دهه آینده در جهان اسلام، واگرایی بیشتر و همچنین حفظ وضع موجود. نتایج تحقیق نشان می­دهد که با کاهش دخالت قدرت­های فرامنطقه­ ای و کاهش چالش­های قومی مذهبی در جهان اسلام به سمت همگرایی خواهد رفت. در صورت افزایش دخالت قدرت­های فرامنطقه ­ای و افزایش چالش­ های قومی مذهبی جهان اسلام به سمت واگرایی بیشتر خواهد رفت. همچنین در صورت کاهش دخالت قدرت­های فرامنطقه ­ای و افزایش چالش­های قومی مذهبی شاهد امتداد وضع موجود خواهیم بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Geopolitical analysis of the components of convergence and divergence in the Islamic world

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ezatallah Ezati 1
  • Ebrahim Eijabi 2
  • Reza Mokhtari 3

1 Associate Professor of Political Geography, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Unit, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor of Future Studies, Command and Headquarters University of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, Tehran, Iran

3 Master's degree in Geopolitics, Command and Staff University of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Geographical regions have moved toward convergence and cooperation based on common mental concepts and with regard to common structures and functions, and have been able to move their region toward sustainable development and security. One of the sensitive and strategic areas in the equations of the structure of the power pyramid of the Islamic world. Despite the mental and objective similarities in the Islamic world to create a coherent regional organization based on building power, this region is considered one of the most tense regions in the world. The purpose of this research is to examine how the Islamic world can be imagined under the influence of domestic and international conditions in the next decade. In this research, Peter Schwartz's future research approach and scenario writing method have been used. The findings of the research have shown that by recognizing multiple drivers in objective and subjective dimensions on a regional and global scale, two uncertainties regarding the future of power building in the Islamic world in the next decade were identified, which include increasing or decreasing the involvement of extra-regional powers in Islamic world and also the increase or decrease of ethnic and religious challenges in the Islamic world. Three scenarios have been designed based on these uncertainties, which include the convergence of power construction in the next decade in the Islamic world, further divergence, and maintaining the status quo. The results of the research show that by reducing the involvement of extra-regional powers and reducing ethnic and religious challenges, the Islamic world will move towards convergence. If the involvement of extra-regional powers increases and ethnic-religious challenges increase, the Islamic world will go towards further divergence. Also, if the involvement of extra-regional powers decreases and the ethno-religious challenges increase, we will witness the continuation of the existing situation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Geopolitical analysis of the components of convergence and divergence in the Islamic world
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