Abstract

Accelerating geopolitical developments in West Asia and the gradual transformation of the regional order have placed the role and position of the Axis of Resistance at the center of strategic analysis. However, the future of this resistance network, amid great-power competition, intra-regional transformations, and its own internal dynamics, faces increasing uncertainties.

The main question of this study is: what scenarios can be envisaged for the future of the Axis of Resistance, and what implications would they have for the regional order of West Asia? Employing a descriptive-explanatory approach, this research draws on futures studies methodology, scenario planning, brainstorming techniques, and documentary analysis. By identifying multilevel drivers (intra-axis, regional, and international), the study formulates alternative futures for the Axis of Resistance.

The findings indicate that the future of the Axis of Resistance can be explained through three broad scenarios: desirable, probable, and possible. The originality of this article lies in presenting an analytical framework based on multilevel drivers and in systematically linking future scenarios to their implications for the regional order, thereby offering a realistic and non-linear understanding of future developments in West Asia.