Political developments in Iran unfold within a multi-level environment where international pressures, regional security dynamics, economic conditions, social movements, and institutional capacities interact and mutually influence one another. This study aims to elucidate the mechanisms through which geopolitical and economic pressures can—under specific conditions—lead to domestic political consequences. The research employs a descriptive-analytical method, drawing upon literature regarding regional security, political economy, and social protest studies, as well as reports from international institutions. The analytical framework is organized across three levels: international, regional, and domestic. The findings indicate that external pressure alone is insufficient to explain the trajectory of Iran's political developments; rather, its impact depends on economic resilience, the quality of governance, institutional structures, and the state-society relationship. From this perspective, "structural erosion" is defined not as state collapse, but as the gradual degradation of specific economic, institutional, and policy-making capacities. Based on this framework, eight analytical pathways have been identified: continuation of the status quo, gradual erosion, managed reforms, escalation of domestic crisis, functional crisis, geopolitical realignment, structural change, and unstable equilibrium. These scenarios do not constitute definitive predictions of the future; instead, they serve as tools for examining potential trajectories and identifying early warning indicators.